Around the Big 12: TCU Horned Frogs
TCU won just five games in 2019, failing to reach a bowl game for the first time in six years. If there's a bright side to missing out on a bowl its Gary Patterson's track record of how his teams perform the season after winning fewer than six games. In the coach's 20-year tenure, the Frogs have won six or fewer games three times and in each of the seasons following that, TCU has won at least 11 games.
So there is plenty of optimism heading into 2020 and six of TCU's seven losses last year were one-score games so they can't possibly get that unlucky again.
3 Prominent Storylines
How will the offense look?
TCU made major changes to the offensive coaching staff by bringing in former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill as basically the "offensive head coach". Kill and Patterson have been friends forever and Kill was a groomsman in Patterson's wedding and this is the first time the two have been on the same coaching staff. Kill will hopefully bring in some fresh ideas to shake up a stagnant group last season. TCU also brought back Doug Meacham, who was the co-offensive coordinator from 2014-2016 to fill the same role. The Frogs were top-three in the country both of those seasons so the same magic is expected once again.
How will Max Duggan develop?
If you want to build a top-three team it would help if the quarterback was somebody that can carry the team to that height. Duggan played in every game as a true freshman last year and became the full-time starter by week three after TCU tried a two-quarterback system to start the year. Duggan wowed with his legs the entire season and he started to develop excellent touch on his passes late in the year after firing rockets early in his career. He has a great foundation and has TCU thinking they can return to an elite program before his career is over.
Who replaces Jalen Reagor as the top wide receiver?
One of the main reasons the TCU offense struggled last year was due to poor receiver play. Reagor was an underutilized weapon when he was in purple and now figures to be a top-50 pick in the NFL draft. Who steps up to replace him as the main weapon of the offense remains to be seen. Taye Barber is probably the best of the bunch and despite starting his career as a sure-handed, short-game threat with explosion if he can get free, he became a premiere deep-ball catcher late last season. Other names to watch are Tevailance Hunt, Derius Davis, tight end Pro Wells, true freshman Colin Johnston and redshirt freshman Blair Conwright, who impressed in the limited spring camp TCU had.
3 Biggest Departures
Jalen Reagor
As was just pointed out, the offense could use a rock star on offense and Reagor was that. His numbers don't show just how great he was after stellar freshmen and sophomore seasons the offense regressed in 2019 and probably hurt his draft stock. The position will likely remain a question of who replaces him all season in 2020.
Ross Blacklock
The TCU defense was once again one of the best in the country and that was thanks to the return of Blacklock. He missed all of the 2018 season due to a torn achilles in fall camp after being a freshman All-American in 2017. He was slow out the gate, but by the midway point of the season he was back in that All-American form and has been a first-round pick in several mock drafts.
Jeff Gladney
The back half of the TCU defense was anchored by another possible first-round pick in Gladney. He had an ability to shut down half of the field, but missed some playing time last season, which enabled true freshmen Keeyon Stewart and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (yes nephew to TCU legend and NFL Hall of Famer LaDanian Tomlinson) to get plenty of playing time last season. That experience could actually be a big boost to the Frogs in 2020.
3 Key Returners
Max Duggan
The quarterback is the most important position on the field and how much Duggan improves will be the ceiling for this team. If he can become a dual-threat quarterback in the same vein of Trevone Boykin, this could be another Big 12 title contending team. If he doesn't take a step forward this will be a team fighting for bowl eligibility.
Trevon Moehrig
One of the most dominant players for TCU the last two year has been Trevon Moehrig. He wasn't expected to play much early in his career, but injuries to the secondary in 2018 forced him to start as a true freshman and he's become one of the best safeties in the country. Pro Football Focus has him as the top-rated returning safety in the country and Ar'Darius Washington, a redshirt sophomore in 2020, right next to him in the TCU secondary as the number two-rated returning safety this year. TCU's defense is expected to be tops in the Big 12 once again this year.
Garret Wallow
One of the most sure tacklers in the Big 12 is the anchor of this TCU defense. He is one of just two linebackers the Frogs use on defense and is expected to lead the team in tackles once again. He's all over the field and has become the quarterback of the Frogs' defense heading into his senior year.
3 Biggest Additions
TCU loses four offensive linemen this year, led by left tackle Lucas Niang. He is another potential top-50 NFL draft pick, but only played half of last season. Storment is transferring in from Colorado State for grad school and should be starting at left tackle. The rest of the unit is expected to be young, maybe one other senior starter, so getting experience and talent from Storment to plug and play will be huge.
The true freshman from Temple, TX, was high on TCU's radar all year and flipped to the Frogs from Texas just before the early signing day. In an offense looking for anybody that can catch the football, Johnston could become an instant playmaker and starter day one if he proves to have the same abilities he did in high school.
With Ross Blacklock leaving early to go pro, there is a void at defensive tackle. Jenkins could become the first Frog freshman All-American since Blacklock at that position and was getting rave reviews from the coaching staff after his first week of spring camp.
Expectations for 2020
As I said a couple times before, TCU doesn't have back-to-back bad years under Patterson. It just doesn't happen.
It's a tough schedule finishing with 10 straight games after getting byes in weeks one and four. But it's a favorable Big 12 slate as they only have to leave the state twice, once to West Virginia and to face Kansas. The pivotal stretch comes in late October when TCU visits Baylor, hosts Oklahoma and Iowa State then goes to Texas.
This figures to be a much better offense with the additions to the coaching staff and the defense is always great under Patterson. I think Duggan makes the improvements to get this team in the thick of the Big 12 top-half, but I don't know if TCU is as good as Oklahoma State this year. This figures to be a wide-open conference behind them and maybe TCU can pull in that second seed in the conference, but I think this is a team that should win at least eight games this year and be poised for a monster 2021 season.
TCU has just three senior starters in 2020 so this team is young and talented, but when we do this preview next year I expect the Frogs to be in the drivers seat in the Big 12 in 2021.