In an effort to bring you in-depth insight on the opposing teams that West Virginia plays, WVSports.com goes Behind Enemy Lines for an in-depth look at the Big 12 conference match-up with Baylor.
What can you expect from the Bears? Well we contacted an authority on the subject in SicEm365.com Director of Broadcasting Grayson Grundhoefer.
1. Baylor started this season 2-4 but has since won three consecutive games. What has been the difference with this team?
There are probably three specific reasons to point to for Baylor’s turnaround since starting 2-4. The first one is the schedule mixed with losing close games. The Bears had to go on the road to face Utah and were pretty much the only team all year that had to face a healthy Cam Rising. He gave the Utes a 23-3 lead before getting injured and Baylor couldn’t get out of the hole. Then they had to go to Colorado and should have won that game but gave up a miracle hail mary as time expired which sent it to OT and they couldn’t finish it. Then they lost to BYU in a game they got down 21-0 immediately then outscored the Cougars 28-13 the rest of the way. Then of course they got blown out in a night game in Ames. Either way three of those teams are in the top four in the Big 12 standings and I would argue Utah was basically the best they have been all year at the time they played them. So the schedule shifting to playing teams who are either equal or not as talented has been a big part in shifting things.
The second reason is the offensive line and in particular the run game. In the first four games against Big 12 competition, Baylor averaged a horrific 104 yards rushing per game but after the bye week that has shifted. In the last three conference games Baylor is averaging a whopping 285 rushing yards per game. Baylor offensive coordinator Jake Spavital was finally able to implement some new rushing styles which feature off-tackle carries that weren’t run early in the season. It’s given them a little less predictability than running inside zone every time. The staff also filled in the left tackle position with South Carolina transfer Sidney Fugar who has made a huge impact at a position where Baylor was beyond struggling for the first half of the year. If this kind of rushing continues it will be hard for anyone remaining on the schedule to beat them but let’s face it Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and TCU are also matchups that get everyone right in the run game.
Finally the last one is quarterback Sawyer Robertson. He was getting backup reps most of Fall Camp behind Toledo transfer Dequan Finn and did not start for Baylor this season until the third game of the year. He played really well in his first four starts before the bye week but I think the lack of reps with the first string unit showed at times. The bye week gave him a chance to build more cohesiveness with the wide receivers and just get even more comfortable with more practice repetitions. His confidence and play has improved even more since the break as he has totaled nine touchdowns and just one turnover during the three-game winning streak.
2. What’s the situation at quarterback and what are his strengths?
I talked a little about Sawyer in the last section but let’s dive a little deeper here. He has been outstanding for Baylor this season since taking over the starting job. He has the 6th highest QBR in the nation at 84.2 and is first in the Big 12 by nearly nine whole points with WVU QB Garrett Greene in 2nd.. That stat doesn’t mean everything but it matches what we have been watching from him since he took over the starting role. He has been efficient at all levels of the field and if you don’t get pressure on him then you are in big trouble. He has a massive 13.2 average yards per completion and is 16-for-40 for 448 yards and 8 TDs with two interceptions on 20+ yards throws as well which speaks to the big plays the passing game can create. Robertson can also move as well especially in the open field and in short-yardage situations. He is 6-foot-4, 220 pounds so he is tough to bring down and always falls forward. He escapes the pocket pretty well but can get happy feet at times in the pocket. Ultimately he has been Baylor’s best player this year and has been absolutely dealing this season.
3. What type of offense does this Baylor team run and who are the playmakers to watch?
This is a Spread/Air Raid offense that wants to run the football effectively and create explosive plays in the passing game. Essentially the goal will be to establish the run then get the ball to playmakers in space or down the field. Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington did not play in the first two games of the season but he has been really good especially since the bye week. He has averaged 130 yards and totaled six touchdowns over the past three games. Baylor has six pass catchers with at least 165 yards and two touchdowns so they have a very unique mixture but Josh Cameron has been the most consistent one. He has seven touchdowns (19th in the nation) and 424 yards receiving yards. He is also second in the nation in punt return yards so he is dangerous there as well. The rest of the group of pass catchers have been basically taking turns having big games as four different guys have led this team in receiving at one point this season.
4. Same on defense?
The defense essentially plays with three defensive linemen, an EDGE, two linebackers, a nickel, two safeties, and two cornerbacks as far as personnel goes but they will put a lot of guys closer to the LOS throughout the game to bring unique blitzes which is a staple in any Dave Aranda defense. This team is clearly good at some things like run defense, 3rd down stop rate, sacks, and tackles for loss while being not good at things such as forcing turnovers, pass defense, and tackling. Overall the strength of the defense is the front six as they have been pretty consistent all season aside from the Iowa State game in Ames which I do think is an outlier performance. The secondary has had ups and downs especially safety so it is clearly the area which can be targeted by opponents. The playmakers are EDGE Steve Linton, DT Jackie Marshall, LB Matt Jones, LB Keaton Thomas, and CB Caden Jenkins. Baylor has talent at every level but haven’t put together a complete performance yet this season so there are still major concerns.
5. What are your keys to this game and how do you see it playing out? Is the fact that Baylor has yet to win in Morgantown a talking point this week?
On offense, Baylor has to be able to run the football in order to setup everything they want to do offensively. Now West Virginia’s pass defense is bad enough for the Bears to still win the game without a consistent run game but it would make things far more challenging. The other two areas go hand in hand. Baylor needs another strong performance from Sawyer Robertson and needs the offensive line to continue to pass protect at a high level. Robertson should have success regardless but if the Mountaineers can pressure him then they may be able to force him into some uncharacteristic mistakes like they did with Brendan Sorsby. Baylor has only allowed three sacks in the past three games but West Virginia has five in its last two games so something has to give here.
On defense, I think Baylor is going to do everything they can to stop the run and not give up explosive passing plays. Baylor is 7th in the Big 12 in run defense while West Virginia is 5th in rushing offense. This should be a good matchup to watch as they will try to slow down Jaheim White. If Garrett Greene doesn’t play then it makes life significantly easier in this area as we saw in the Cincinnati game in which they only managed 92 yards rushing. Dave Aranda is definitely an attacking coach at times with his blitzes but from down to down he is typically pretty conservative with his defenses. He wants to make an offense run a bunch of plays and be efficient in order to score points. That has worked at times but then at other times they have still gotten hit by explosive plays especially in the secondary. West Virginia has some capabilities to hit on these but it is shocking how big of a step they have taken back in this area from a season ago. Greene threw for an absurd 1,179 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions a year ago on 20+ yard throws. This year Greene and Marchiol have combined for 518 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. I still think they are capable to hit on those but teams have schemed to take this away and the quarterback play hasn’t been good enough.
Baylor has never won in Morgantown so that is 100% a talking point this week. West Virginia is just 2-3 at home this year but Baylor is 1-3 on the road this season. Baylor has been tested though with trips to Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. I think that will allow them to be ready for this matchup especially since they are averaging 30.75 points per game in those road games. It is never easy to win there but I think Baylor is setup to have success offensively at a minimum.
The Bears have been playing like a top five team in the Big 12 over the last month as they have clearly figured a bunch of things out since the bye week and their quarterback Sawyer Robertson has emerged as a top signal caller in the league. Now he gets a chance to face the worst pass defense in the league and a run defense that is good but not great. I think Baylor’s offense is poised to have a big day and will score at least 31 points. That means West Virginia is going to have to match that and while I think they will move the ball I don’t think they will have a big enough day to keep up especially if Marchiol is the quarterback. The game being in Morgantown gives me a slight pause but that home field advantage has not been very good and Baylor has been road tested. I think the path for the Mountaineers is winning the turnover battle by at least two and stopping Baylor’s rushing attack while being able to hit on explosives offensively. Ultimately I think Baylor wins this game 34-24 as the Bears’ offense is too much and West Virginia’s offense just can’t put up enough points.
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