Best and Worst Case Scenarios for WVU's Regional Matchup
West Virginia baseball will almost certainly hear their name called Monday afternoon as they prepare to head to their second NCAA Tournament appearance in as many years.
However, for the Mountaineers their regional placement will dictate the likelihood the Mountaineers have of advancing.
Worst Case Scenario
Ideally for West Virginia, you avoid the top of the SEC. Whether that be Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, or Arkansas, WVU likely wants nothing to do with any of those regionals, with each of those four teams figuring to be in the top five of all national seeds come Monday.
In addition, that Kentucky team dispatched WVU in a regional last season, while Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, each only have three home losses all season.
Both D1Basebal and Baseball America project there to be five ACC teams as top-16 national seeds and therefore be a regional host. Out of those teams, North Carolina seems to the best out of the group. They have only two losses at home all season, with both losses being a one-run loss.
Ideally, if WVU is going to win a regional for the first time in school history, they are going to have to knock off the No. 1 seed in that region once, and possibly twice. Doing so against teams who rarely lose at home is an even taller task than just beating a good team on the road
Best Case Scenario
Best case for WVU seems to be you find yourself in a regional with teams that are in the No. 7-15 range. While that might be somewhat obvious based on, they are not the best of the best, the numbers also back it up.
Over the last three seasons, teams ranked in the top six, are 13-5 in their host regionals. Last season was the worst out of the three years with teams ranked in the top six went 3-3, however two of those region winners ended up at the College World Series in Omaha.
Projections have West Virginia possibly headed to the Charlottesville Regional to face host school Virginia. UVA has seven home losses this season, and only played two games in the ACC Tournament before they were bounced. In addition, out of all the regional locations, the proximity of Charlottesville to Morgantown would be the closest out of all the regions.
No matter how you slice it, next weekend won’t be easy for the Mountaineers, especially after they once again had a quick 0-2 showing in the Big 12 Tournament.
WVU finds out their fate on Monday at noon, with the regional round beginning on May 31.
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