Why West Virginia's Schedule Looms Large In 2018 Success
West Virginia's schedule is like a sandwich inversion.
It's got all the meat on the top and bottom, and a little fluff in the middle. With the nonconference wild card of a rebooted Tennessee, and NC State as the kicker, there's plenty to chew on over that three-game slate, not to mention a Big 12 schedule that features heavyweights Texas - and yes, the Longhorns will be a league contender - TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to finish.
It's among the more daunting slates in school history, and the arrangement of games could well determine just how far the Mountaineers climb in a season that seems to be Big 12 title game or bust. Tennessee is under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, former Alabama and Florida State assistant looking to retool the subpar Vols defense that was under one-time WVU assistant Butch Jones.
When Jones was fired, Pruitt emerged out of a botched coaching search that included Greg Schiano, Mike Gundy, Mike Leach and even Purdue's Jeff Brohm, among others. When Pruitt accepted, he took on a rebuilding job made a touch easier by the fact that plenty of talent resides at 1600 Phillip Fulmer Way. UT's classes ranked fifth in 2015, 15th in both 2016 and '17 and 20th last year in the Rivals' recruiting. That's trending in the wrong direction, but the match-up for West Virginia isn't a cake walk. With no surefire nose tackle and two new starters along the defensive front for the Mountaineers, along with an offensive line that was mediocre last season (and dominated in the bowl game by Utah), UT could well win this contest in the trenches.
Former Tennessee linebacker LaMarcus Thompson, whose career at the school spanned the tenures of Fulmer, Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley, said Pruitt, a five-time national champion as an assistant, is approaching the job with a "win now" mentality, and a neutral site victory over a program expected to compete for a Big 12 title would be just the jumpstart needed. The Vols have road graders along the line, but have find a quarterback (Jarrett Guarantano perhaps?) and the skill set talent to pair with him. The defense needs three starting DBs, but gets the majority of the front seven back.
This opener is, frankly, a bigger game for West Virginia than Tennessee, which comes off a 4-8 season - the most losses in school history - including an 0-8 mark in the SEC. In a year of high hopes (read: 10 wins), a second straight stumble in the opener would be a reminder that all those who returned because of that "unfinished business" quoted by Dana Holgorsen still have a ways to go.
That segues into what should be a win against Youngstown State. The Penguins were solid last season on both sides, but had a difficult three-game stretch in which they lost a trio of games by a combined 11 points. That largely led to the 6-5 finish for a team which tallied 30 points and 411 yards per game. Keep an eye on the quarterback battle as returner Joe Craycraft is challenged by Montgomery VanGorder.
Should West Virginia emerge 2-0 over the first fortnight of play, the Mountaineers face a tough road test in Raleigh. NC State will have one of the best quarterbacks WVU will face this season in Ryan Finely. The sixth-year senior already ranks fifth in school history with 6,577 passing yards after just two seasons. Finely triggered an offense which averaged more than 32 points per game in a nine-win season last year while throwing for 3,518 yards with a 65.1 percent completion rate. His career percentage of 63 ranks second in NC State history to Phillip Rivers.
Three starting receivers are also back in Kelvin Harmon, Stephen Louis and Jakobi Meyers, though the Pack must replace Jaylen Samuels, who caught a team-best 76 passes. This is one of the more prolific offenses on the schedule, and that includes the likes of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. While NC State won't rival the firepower of the Sooners from last year - OU was among the best offenses of all-time - this is a major challenge for a Mountaineer team still unsettled at corner, and one wrestling with replacing Kyzir White at spur as well.
That final nonconference game will provide a stark contrast to the Big 12 opener against Kansas State. The midpoint of seven games in as many weeks this season, the Wildcats return head coach Bill Snyder for his 27th season, and 10th in his second go around in Manhattan. The 78-year-old managed an 8-5 mark last season, tied for the second-worst for K-State over the last seven years. That didn't sit well with Snyder, who chose to, perhaps, make one final run in 2018 with whoever emerges between Skyler Thompson and Alex Delton at quarterback.
As always, Kansas State's offensive line play should be a strength. All five starters are back, including tackle Dalton Risner, and new coordinator Andre Coleman, promoted from wideouts coach after the departure of Dana Dimel to UTEP as head coach, will have the skill set talent to match. The Wildcats bring back Isaiah Zuber and Dalton Schoen at wideout, though Dominique Health chose to transfer to Appalachian State as a graduate. A solid though not outstanding stable of backs should anchor the typically reliable run game. The problem is on defense, where another rebuilding job at linebacker and the loss of corner D.J. Reed looms large. This series has been tight over the last four seasons, with a 2-2 split and no game decided by more than six points. This is one West Virginia needs to get at home, especially if it comes off a road loss at NC State.
If the Mountaineers can maintain momentum there, it has three contests in which it should be favored down the stretch of the first seven weeks. Texas Tech continued to flounder under Kliff Kingsbury, going just 6-7 a season ago while blowing an 18-point lead in Morgantown. The Raiders reached the postseason, but lost the Birmingham Bowl to USF. Gone are quarterback Nic Shimonek and a trio of wideouts in Keke Coutee, Cameron Batson and Dylan Cantrell. Whoever wins the signal caller job between juco transfer McLane Carter and Jett Duffey won't have to completely outscore foes, however. The Red Raiders allowed a whopping 43.5 points per game in 2016 but reduced that to 32.2 last year under David Gibbs. Tech welcomes back the vast majority of key defensive players as well. The issue of now is that four players, including Duffey, were arrested March 25. Duffey was booked on a criminal mischief charge, and of no all four players (cornerback Desmond Smith-Williams, safety Christian Malik Shakur Taylor and receiver Quan Shorts) remain suspended.
The ends a September in which WVU has five games for the first time since 2007. Kansas comes calling the first week of October, and like Texas Tech should be improved, but not enough to slip past West Virginia if it remains healthy and focused. The Jayhawks are likely to be picked last in the league, and have won just three games in thee last two years. There's a bit of pressure on head coach David Beatty, though coordinator Doug Meacham does get running back Khalil Herbert back. The then-sophomore ripped WVU for a career-best 291 yards last season, which represented nearly 44 percent of his season net of 663 yards. He scored four TDs all season, two against the Mountaineers, and gave KU an outside chance at an upset before a couple late Will Grier scoring runs.
There shouldn't be that much of a scare this season, and a victory would be crucial to keep confidence going into Ames the week after. Quarterback Kyle Kempt gained a sixth season of eligibility, and gives Matt Campbell his centerpiece on offense. Kempt helped the Cyclones upset then-No. 3 Oklahoma in his first career start, and ISU also topped TCU and won the Liberty Bowl 21-20 over Memphis.
His importance rivals that of Grier to West Virginia last season, and he was rightly rewarded with a scholarship after walking on last year. The upswing should continue this fall, with a band-but-don't-break defensive style that allowed the second-fewest points in the Big 112 a season ago. The return of sturdy running back David Montgomery should help offset the loss of top receiver Allen Lazard, though ISU has some collective strength in numbers at the position.
This contest has the potential for an upset, especially with a rejuvenated fan base that will show up regardless of record, but becomes significantly louder when the team shows signs of success. A defeat would rather dampen the open week, but the date comes at a perfect time. It's approximately halfway through the schedule, and allows for some healing before WVU hosts Baylor Oct. 25. West Virginia narrowly escaped last season, the Bears falling just short of a 25-point comeback in Waco under scrambling signal caller Charlie Brewer. The reserve entered for the injured Zach Smith and spearheaded a rally that fell just short when his two-point conversion pass fell incomplete with 17 seconds left in a 38-36 final.
Second-year head coach Matt Rhule continues to make strides, and though BU will be picked in the bottom half of the Big 12, there's enough talent there to win especially if some of the transfers like former Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd - who was within 440 yards of UT's all-time career rushing record in 2016 - pan out effectively. Hurd switched from running back to wideout, giving Brewer an athletic option on the outside behind a line that allowed a whopping 38 sacks a season ago, including six to WVU.
The majority of the defense returns, and though that's always been the secondary side of the ball (no pun intended), Rhule has made it more of a focal point, and that might helped flip a handful off tight games as Baylor hopes to build on a 1-11 season which saw the lone victory coming at Kansas.
And then, the final stretch. This is where, should West Virginia have survived with a 7-1 or better mark, the season will make or break. Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in alternating away-home fashions. Texas expects to be much better than it was a season ago. The Longhorns will be in a three to four team logjam behind Oklahoma in the conference title game race. With the fourth ranked recruiting class in 2018, UT started to restock after it slipped to 31st in the 2017 rankings while signing just 18 players.
Texas lost five games by 10 points or less, and head coach Tom Herman now has his foundation in to pair with the overflowing talent on the roster. Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger will battle it out under center, but until the line play gets better, the 'Horns will have to continue to ride a defense that gave up just 21.2 points per game, and 5.2 yards per play. Thee team has more of a spark with Ehlinger, though Buechele completed 64.3 percent of his passes. With Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey back at receiver, along with a matured Daniel Young at running back, the skill position ability is there.
Herman needs to find replacements for linebacker Malik Jefferson, along with corner Holton Hill and safety DeShon Elliott as all three declared for the NFL Draft. This game got away from West Virginia last season in Morgantown, but a win in Austin is never a gimme, especially now under Herman and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando.
The trip to Texas is backed by a home game versus TCU. The Horned Frogs turned in an 11-3 season and again reached the Big 12 title game, only to lose to Oklahoma. The loss of Kenny Hill looms large, as do the concerns along with offensive line, where head coach Gary Patterson must replace four starters. That makes for a bad combination considering the inexperience at quarterback in whomever emerges between Shawn Robinson and Justin Rogers. Both are highly-touted, and will have a prime target in Jalen Reagor.
The 4-2-5 look will be tested this season because of personnel losses. Gone are end Mat Boesen and tackle Chris Bradley, along with two players in the secondary and linebacker Travin Howard. That's roughly half the defense, and it might take TCU a bit to adjust. That's difficult with games against Ohio State and Texas in the first four weeks.
If West Virginia does get a break in the latter parts of this schedule, it'll come against an Oklahoma State team that suffered huge losses. Quarterback Mason Rudolph and receivers Marcell Ateman and James Washington are gone, taking away the vast majority of OSU's offense from a season ago. Mike Gundy's attack was nearly as lethal as it ever has been (possible exception: the 12-1 season in 2011). The Cowboys rolled to an average of 45 points and 568.9 yards per game, both second in thee Big 12 behind Oklahoma.
Rudolph edged Baker Mayfield in total offense at 379.9 yards per game, and that replacement will be key. The competition remains open between Keondre Wudtee, Taylor Cornelius and Spencer Sanders, but OSU's tendency toward the pass might be tempered by that and the return of back Justice Hill, who rushed for 1,467 yards a season ago.
The Cowboys allowed 29.4 points per game last year, and the loss of safety Tre Flowers and linebacker Chad Whitener loom large. Add in a new coordinator in Jim Knowles, and there's a substantial rebuilding job to do on that side of the ball. WVU faces the Cowboys in the penultimate regular season contest, however, giving that defense time to develop. Play, the game difficulty ramps up due to playing in Stillwater.
And finally, Oklahoma. With the Big 12 hoping to avoid near immediate rematches in the title game, well, one can infer what that means about where this contest is located on the calendar. WVU gets OU at home, but that hasn't made much difference. The Mountaineers are 0-6 versus the Sooners in Big 12 play, and were stampeded last season. Of course, Oklahoma loses Mayfield, tight end Mark Andrews (1,765 yards and 22 touchdowns in three years) and lineman Orlando Brown, among others. But the eligibility of Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray eases the issue at quarterback, while running back Rodney Anderson should anchor the ground game.
The defense should be a touch weaker sans sack specialist Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, safety Steven Parker and lineman Du’Vonta Lampkin. Still, there's more than enough talent for the Sooners to be considered the Big 12 favorite. A title this season would make it five years running, and set up the program for yet another national title run. This will likely be one of three to four games where WVU will be an underdog (NC State, perhaps, along with Texas and potentially TCU), and if the path to the conference championship game always goes through OU, West Virginia will get its chance to advance the day after Thanksgiving.
So how do these Mountaineers end up? Can WVU get out to the 3-0 conference start, then perhaps a 7-1 or better mark going into the final four games? Perhaps. The road test at NC State will be difficult, and Kansas State always plays West Virginia tightly. Ames has claimed many an upset victim before, and even Lubbock could have a way of evening things out.
If WVU gets through unscathed from there, it will have a chance to prove its mettle over the final month of the season. Escape that stretch with a perfect record in tact, and nobody will argue West Virginia is a playoff contender.
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