Even eight isn't enough for WVU football in 2018?
Las Vegas has set its sights - and a projection - on West Virginia's coming season, pegging the Mountaineers as a seven-win team in the regular season.
BetDSI.com released its over/under on wins for the the Power Five conferences in early May, with the Mountaineers tied for fourth place in the league with Kansas State and Texas. All three drew the over-under at 7 wins, which translates into a five-loss mark over the 12-game slate.
It reads here that won't cut it. Not with the return of Will Grier and Gary Jennings and David Sills and four of five offensive line starters with a trio of backfield options. Not in the second season under coordinator Jake Spavital, and not in the eighth overall head coaching campaign for Dana Holgosen.
Even with a defense which must plug holes along the line and in portions of the secondary, a campaign is exactly what it will be for Holgorsen, who has made clear his expectations have risen for the offense under Spavital and for the team as a whole.
After a 10-win 2016 season in a down Big 12, WVU dipped to seven wins a season ago. That was dead on to the Vegas predictions, and it's clear that the Mountaineers likely would have defeated Texas to reach eight wins and had a shot at the Alamo Bowl for a ninth if Grier hadn't injured his throwing hand against the Longhorns.
As it was, the seven wins could be explained, but left a sour taste in the mouth that can be washed away only by reaching the Big 12 title game.
Holgorsen, thus far, has had it pretty easy from both the press and fan base overall. After a stellar first season capped by the Orange Bowl blowout of Clemson, the need to overhaul the roster in Big 12 play was obvious. Holgorsen and staff were given time to do such, and rebounded from a 4-8 season in 2013 to win seven, eight and 10 games over the next three years.
Holgorsen touted the rise, often saying that the increase in victories showed the program was righted and heading in the correct direction. But last season, the unfortunate injury threw the proverbial bucket of cold water on a solid season, and the lack of a reliable back-up fed into two of the final three losses, with Oklahoma the outlier as the Sooners likely would have bested West Virginia even with a healthy Grier.
But that lack of a quality reserve - something WVU believes it has remedied with the transfer of Jack Allison and a quality spring perfermance by Trey Lowe - is one of the major issues hanging over the head of a staff which returns largely intact and with high expectations themselves.
There's much to prove this season, from showing that the offense has evolved to better run the football and operate with better consistency and quality situational play, to finer fundmental tackling and angles from the defense. The kicker, pardon the Vegas pun, is that there's precious little rope left for leeway.
For a fan base quite excited about potential and possibility, there's also an underlying cautiousness and feeling that the Mountaineers, and the staff, face a "prove it" situation. The foundation is well laid, there have been five recruiting classes even since the down 4-8 season in 2013, and Holgorsen enters the second season of his new five-year contract. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson enters his fifth hear at the helm of the 3-3-5, and the communication and operation - as well as philosophical - issues from a season ago should be fixed by Spavital in his second season together.
Factor in Grier, who was recently named as the top quarterback in college football by Athlon magazine, and the defensive line help with the signing of graduate transfers Kenny Bigelow Jr. and Jabril Robinson, and even the depth issues at linebacker and corner won't be enough to offset the disappointment if West Virginia is again merely able to push the Vegas over-under.
It's why even eight isn't enough for this team, this program, at this time.
The Big 12 is down offensively, with the loss of Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Hill and more. It lost an average of two draft picks per team, and it's average draft position of player selected rose to 118 from the 140s last year.
Translation: The overall league offensive talent level, especially at the most imperative of positions in quarterback, is down. Meanwhile, West Virginia is set up to have one of its most prolific attacks ever.
Combine that with a down Tennessee program in the opener, one which is battling the mental vibes coming off what first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt termed a disappointing spring game following literally among the worst seasons in program history, and WVU must go at least 2-1 in a nonconference that includes NC State and Youngstown State.
Even a 1-2 mark still leaves a whopping three losses in conference, according to BetDSI.com, meaning the Mountaineers wouldn't sniff the conference title game, and indeed would be likely, mathematically, to finish no better than third to fourth place. That's where the site has the team pegged now, behind Oklahoma (10.5 over/under), Oklahoma State (8.5) and TCU (8). With the personnel and situation in place, that would be a massive disappointment.
Even an 8-4 finish might not be enough to satisfy with all the factors considered, including the projections that the Vols won't win six while NC State is right at the same seven-win total.
While Vegas has the Mountaineers tied with K-State and TCU for fourth in the league, it should be noted that the closing stretch of schedule is difficult with games at Texas and Oklahoma State spliced around home dates with TCU and Oklahoma. Aside from Kansas State, it could well mean the hardest four games fall at the back of the slate with zero open weeks. It could also mean West Virginia enters that November stretch at 7-1 or better, meaning a massive fall from there to 8-4 or worse would be akin to flirting with the summit and a probable top 10 ranking to another also-ran status and mid-level bowl. It would also make for a rough offseason in the emotions around the program and in recruiting.
All the above accrues to the quintessential make or break year for West Virginia and, perhaps, the overall direction of Holgorsen's tenure in Morgantown. Get only to seven wins and the wolves that neared the door in the 2016 preseason are back and frothing as the buyout drops to what's still a hefty chunk of change at $6.9 million. Again win 10, and reach the Big 12 title game, and the outside expectations are largely satisfied with a season well done and a job as secure as any in the game.
But it's time. No more excuses, conjecture or over-hype. Results speak volumes, and that's what this thus-far patient fan base will utilize to judge exactly how much of a success 2018 was - and the prosperity or austerity moving forward.
