Picked eighth WVU now must try to defy expectations in year one under Brown
There has been a lot of discussion on just where West Virginia will fall in the Big 12 pecking order during the first season under new head coach Neal Brown.
With the various personnel losses on both sides of the ball and plenty of unanswered questions across the board pegging exactly where the Mountaineers will be has been a difficult task for anybody.
Well, if you subscribe to the pre-season poll you now have at least an answer when it comes to expectations across the conference landscape.
The Mountaineers were perched ahead of only Kansas State and Kansas in eighth place in the league only a year after the program was selected second. West Virginia failed to meet those expectations finishing fourth with an 8-4 record on the season but now the task for Brown and company will be to try to defy the expectations that have the program projected in the bottom-third of the standings.
It’s the third time that West Virginia has been selected in that spot, tied for the lowest since joining the league in 2012, and it’s been a mixed bag when it comes to actual results. In 2013, the football team matched the pre-season expectations finishing eighth after being picked there but the next year the Mountaineers defied the odds and finished sixth a total of two spots higher.
Those two spots could be the difference in a 4-8 campaign or potentially 7-6 and bowl eligible like you could see when contrasting those two prior projected eighth place finishes.
It’s easy to see the rationale that Brown faces an uphill battle given that the bulk of the offensive production including quarterback Will Grier, who finished fourth in the Heisman race, walked out the door with former head coach Dana Holgorsen. Meanwhile, the defense lost the Big 12 Conference Player of the Year in linebacker David Long and several other key contributors.
Even Director of Athletics Shane Lyons has asked for people to be realistic about the situation entering this coming year, a telling sign when it comes to how things could be perceived at this stage.
In total only 22 of the top 40 players in terms of snaps played are back in 2019 and only six of those saw over 500 snaps last season meaning that in terms of returning production, the pickings are slim.
The schedule doesn’t do any favors either considering the program is one of four power five teams in all of college football that will square off against 11 power five teams.
The one team that doesn’t fit that mold is FCS powerhouse James Madison, who returns 20 of 22 starters after a 9-4 finish last season. West Virginia also will hit the road for six road games out of those 11, although two of those are the teams picked below the Mountaineers in the standings at Kansas and at Kansas State.
There are certainly opportunities for wins on the schedule and three other Big 12 teams also will feature new coaches on their sidelines along with West Virginia but it certainly could be an easier debut slate.
Win total projections have been across the board for the program when it comes to the 2019 season and while the bulk of West Virginia faithful have prescribed to the long-term building plan set forth by Brown which includes a change in culture, finding themselves a year ahead of schedule certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Given the uncertainty heading into fall camp, which admittedly could clear itself up by the time game one rolls around, it’s not a stretch to say that finding a way to become bowl eligible in year one could be looked at as a success. Not the type of success you want to hang your hat on but a major step in the building blocks that Brown is attempting to lay down when it comes to his long-term vision.
Ultimately, the legacy that the new coaches have in Morgantown is not going to be defined by what happens in year one but if the first year is going to get off to a splash Brown is going to have to do something that Holgorsen was only able to do three times in his eight seasons atop the program.
He and his team are going to have to defy pre-season expectations.
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