With six Big 12 games to go, West Virginia holds a three-game lead on second-place Arizona State in the Big 12 standings.
WVSports.com looks at what WVU's path to a Big 12 regular season title is, as the Mountaineers face Kansas State on the road this weekend, before they face Kansas at home the following weekend to close the regular season.
West Virginia is currently 18-4 in Big 12 games. They have not played 24 league games due to two games being canceled because of wildfires during their series against Oklahoma State. This means the math is not linear in terms of who has a better record out of 30 conference games, because WVU and OSU will not reach 30 conference games, and WVU can only reach 28.
Instead, it's all about who will have the highest win percentage in conference play when all is said and done.
With two weekends to go, WVU has an 81.82 winning percentage in league play. Arizona State has a 66.67 win percentage, while Kansas, Arizona, TCU, and Kansas State, who are 15-9 in Big 12 play, are at a 62.50 win percentage this season. Behind them are Kansas State and Cincinnati have a 58.33 win percentage and a 54.17 win percentage, respectively, during league play.
The math is pretty simple for the Mountaineers, if they win two or three games the rest of the way, then they will be Big 12 champions.
If WVU goes 2-4 over their final six Big 12 games, WVU would be at a 71.43 win percentage. At that point, only Arizona State could catch the Mountaineers, and they would have to go 6-0 to do so, which would put them at a 73.33 win percentage, and therefore, first place in the Big 12.
If WVU were to go 3-3 down the stretch, they would finish the season 21-7, which would give them a 75.0 win percentage. As it stands, even if every other Big 12 team were to go undefeated the rest of the way, none could get to that mark, with ASU going 6-0 and getting to 73.33 percent, being the highest total any team can achieve.
Now, two years ago, WVU needed to win one of their final three games against Texas to claim sole possession of the Big 12 title, but were swept, therefore sharing the title with the Longhorns and Oklahoma State, so it's important to note who plays who over the next two weeks.
Arizona State is in the best position to catch WVU currently, and they face Houston and they face Oklahoma State. If ASU were to go 4-2, WVU would likely need only 2-3 more wins, depending on how everything shakes out.
The advantage West Virginia has is that they face two teams who are right behind them in the league standings. WVU plays Kansas State and Kansas, meaning if WVU can win games against either of those teams, it limits the ceiling for each of those teams.
For example, if WVU were to go 1-2 and lose each series, that would mean they would go 2-4 overall, finishing with a win percentage of 71.43 percent. It would also mean those two teams' ceilings are 5-1, getting KSU to a 63.33 win percentage, and Kansas to a 66.67 win percentage — both still trailing WVU.
Out of the three-way tie of Kansas, Arizona, and TCU, only two of those teams face a conference foe with a winning record (Kansas plays WVU, and TCU plays Cincinnati).
Of the teams remaining, it seems as though Arizona has the easiest path to going 6-0 over the next two weeks. The Wildcats face Utah and Houston, who have a combined 15-32 mark in league play this season. If Arizona goes 6-0, they would finish the year with a win percentage of 70 percent. That means WVU would just have to go 2-4 or better to claim the league title over the Wildcats, assuming ASU doesn't go 6-0.
As it stands, if WVU wins three of their next six games, they are the Big 12 Champion. If they win two, they need a little bit of help, and anything after that, it starts to get a little crazy for the Mountaineers.
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